← Michael McLean

O’Hare Flyer demand model

Could Chicago fill an express train to O’Hare?

A 2025 ridehail and taxi baseline for the proposed 15-minute service between the Old Post Office and O’Hare Terminal 2.

Analysis snapshot: August 25, 2026

The paid-car market alone is large. In 2025, 3.45 million ridehail and taxi trips connected O’Hare with the Near North Side, Near West Side, Loop, or Near South Side during the proposed train’s 4 a.m.–10 p.m. operating window.

This is an observable market slice, not a full ridership forecast. It excludes Blue Line riders, private vehicles, parking, rental cars, shuttles, airport employees, and potential Union Station connections.

1 / Context

The Proposed O’Hare Flyer

The early-stage, privately backed proposal would use dedicated track on existing freight rights-of-way. City and railroad approvals are still required.

Old Post OfficeDowntown
O’Hare T2Airport

Service plan

Investment case

The pitch pairs a $2.25 billion capital plan with a fare above the Blue Line but below a typical paid-car trip. Demand and debt coverage remain the central open questions.

Read the proposal reporting

2 / Market

Where The Observable Market Is

The Near North Side and Loop account for nearly four of every five observed vehicle trips. Travel is also balanced enough by direction to support service in both directions.

Trips by downtown community area

Hover or select an area to see 2025 trips by direction and mode. O’Hare Community Area 76 is outside the displayed downtown catchment.

Fewer tripsMore trips
Loading community areas...

Trips by downtown community area

Both directions and both modes combined.

Direction balance

3 / Trends

How Trip Volume Moves Through The Year

Weekly views expose holiday and travel-calendar variation; the monthly view shows the broader seasonal market and mode mix.

Monthly O’Hare–downtown vehicle trips

Ridehail and taxi trips, stacked by mode. Same geography and operating-hour filter throughout.

Weekly ridehail trips

Transportation Network Provider records by week of year.

Weekly taxi trips

Taxi records by week of year, shown on its own scale.

4 / Timing

When Trips Start

Day-of-week and hour-of-day patterns use Chicago-local trip-start timestamps and include only the proposed 4 a.m.–10 p.m. operating window.

Day of week × hour of day

Cell intensity is rescaled within each selected mode; totals appear at right and below.

5 / Model

Convert Vehicle Trips Into Train Riders

This first pass converts observed vehicles to passengers, then applies a capture rate. Adjust the assumptions to see the resulting annual riders and fare revenue.

Annual riders from paid-car market
Annual fare revenue
Average riders / train
Fare discount vs. spend / trip

Illustrative demand range

These sensitivity cases are not forecasts.

CasePassengers / vehicleCaptureAnnual ridersFareFare revenue

Reference

Method And Caveats

O’Hare is Community Area 76. The downtown catchment is Community Areas 8, 28, 32, and 33. All published figures use the same complete 2025 window and Chicago-local 4 a.m.–10 p.m. trip-start filter.

Included

Ridehail and taxi trips in either direction between O’Hare and the four-area downtown catchment.

Not yet included

CTA, private vehicles, parking, rental cars, shuttles, airport employees, induced demand, and connecting rail passengers.

Source limitations

Records are vehicle trips, not people. Taxi reporting is incomplete, timestamps are rounded to 15 minutes, and ridehail fares are privacy-rounded.

View the monthly SoQL query
View the weekly, timing, and map SoQL queries