1 / Momentum
Annual Momentum
The first read is the pace of change: both the city and metro stayed positive in 2025, but each came in well below the 2024 bounce.
City of Chicago
Year-over-year change in the July 1 population estimate.
Chicago Metro
Year-over-year change for the Chicago-Naperville-Elgin metro area.
2 / Baseline
Recovery From The Low
Indexing each series to 2020 separates the latest slowdown from the broader recovery arc. The metro is almost back to baseline; the city remains slightly below.
Population index, 2020 = 100
The city and metro both lost population early in the decade. The metro is nearly back to its July 2020 estimate, while the city remains slightly below it.
3 / Drivers
Drivers Of The Slowdown
For the metro, components show the same pattern from another angle: international migration fell back from 2024, while domestic outflow eased and natural increase stayed steady.
Chicago metro drivers
Natural change, domestic migration, international migration, and residual adjustments by estimate year.
| Year | Population change | Natural change | Domestic migration | International migration | Net migration | Residual |
|---|
4 / Geography
Where Change Shows Up
The place maps keep the long-cycle view next to the latest one-year move, so local gains and losses do not get flattened into one metro number.
2020-2025
2024-2025
5 / Peer Context
How Chicago Compares
The peer set is intentionally a growth-market comparison, not a national ranking. Chicago's growth is positive, but lower than most selected Sun Belt metros.
Selected metros
Population growth, July 2024 to July 2025.
Reference
Detailed Tables
Exact values are kept here after the main read, with Chicago highlighted in the peer table for quick comparison.
City and metro detail
| Year | Chicago city | City annual change | City % | Chicago metro | Metro annual change | Metro % |
|---|
Selected metro detail
| Metro | 2025 population | 2025 change | 2025 % | 2020-2025 change | Domestic migration | International migration | Natural change | Residual |
|---|