← Michael McLean

Census Vintage 2025

Chicago Population Trends

City and metro population estimates through July 1, 2025

The Census Bureau released Vintage 2025 city and town estimates on May 14, 2026. Metro estimates were released March 26, 2026; Census labels the region as Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN.

1 / Momentum

Annual Momentum

The first read is the pace of change: both the city and metro stayed positive in 2025, but each came in well below the 2024 bounce.

City of Chicago

Year-over-year change in the July 1 population estimate.

Chicago Metro

Year-over-year change for the Chicago-Naperville-Elgin metro area.

2 / Baseline

Recovery From The Low

Indexing each series to 2020 separates the latest slowdown from the broader recovery arc. The metro is almost back to baseline; the city remains slightly below.

Population index, 2020 = 100

The city and metro both lost population early in the decade. The metro is nearly back to its July 2020 estimate, while the city remains slightly below it.

3 / Drivers

Drivers Of The Slowdown

For the metro, components show the same pattern from another angle: international migration fell back from 2024, while domestic outflow eased and natural increase stayed steady.

Chicago metro drivers

Natural change, domestic migration, international migration, and residual adjustments by estimate year.

Year Population change Natural change Domestic migration International migration Net migration Residual

4 / Geography

Where Change Shows Up

The place maps keep the long-cycle view next to the latest one-year move, so local gains and losses do not get flattened into one metro number.

Figure 1. Population Change in the Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN Metro Area

2020-2025

2024-2025

5 / Peer Context

How Chicago Compares

The peer set is intentionally a growth-market comparison, not a national ranking. Chicago's growth is positive, but lower than most selected Sun Belt metros.

Selected metros

Population growth, July 2024 to July 2025.

Reference

Detailed Tables

Exact values are kept here after the main read, with Chicago highlighted in the peer table for quick comparison.

City and metro detail

Year Chicago city City annual change City % Chicago metro Metro annual change Metro %

Selected metro detail

Metro 2025 population 2025 change 2025 % 2020-2025 change Domestic migration International migration Natural change Residual